My Retirement Saver portfolios, which are geared toward people who have several—or possibly many—years until retirement, hold anywhere from 50% to 95% in stocks. Thus, it’s little wonder that all of them scored solid gains in 2024’s robust equity market.

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As in 2023, the exchange-traded fund portfolios outpaced their mutual fund counterparts, and their edge was particularly striking last year. While the mutual fund and ETF portfolios have similar allocations to each of the major asset classes, the ETF portfolio holdings beat the mutual funds within nearly every asset class. That edge was particularly pronounced in US equity: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI, which composes anywhere from 30% to 40% of all the ETF portfolios, scored the highest gains of any portfolio holding last year.

I also compare each of the portfolios’ returns to those of a blended benchmark composed of inexpensive index funds and ETFs. The goal is to examine whether an investor would have done just as well assembling a portfolio of three core index funds—US stock, non-US stock, and bonds—and calling it a day. Recent results suggest that would be a winning strategy: Only the Conservative ETF portfolio managed to best its simple blended benchmark in 2024. That strength owed largely to its inclusion of short-term bonds rather than owning a total bond market index fund as its sole bond holding. For investors who are compelled by a simple portfolio of index funds or ETFs—I’ve created Minimalist versions.

And while these Retirement Saver portfolios are geared toward investors’ tax-sheltered accounts, I’ve also created tax-efficient versions, for both mutual funds and ETFs. For people who are actively drawing upon their portfolios for income in retirement, I’ve created the Retirement Bucket portfolios.

Looking Back at the Retirement Saver Portfolios’ 2024 Outcomes

Mutual Fund Saver Portfolios

Aggressive Mutual Fund Saver Portfolio

20% Primecap Odyssey Growth POGRX

20% Oakmark Fund OAKMX

15% Vanguard Extended Market Index VEXAX

33% Vanguard Total International Stock Index VTIAX

7% Oakmark International Small Cap OAKEX

5% TCW MetWest Total Return Bond MWTRX

2024 Return: 9.87%

Moderate Mutual Fund Saver Portfolio

12% Primecap Odyssey Growth

13% Oakmark Fund

13% Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index VDADX

10% Vanguard Extended Market Index

27% Vanguard Total International Stock Index

5% Oakmark International Small Cap

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20% TCW MetWest Total Return Bond

2024 Return: 8.93%

Conservative Mutual Fund Saver Portfolio

10% Primecap Odyssey Growth

10% Oakmark Fund

10% Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index

5% Vanguard Extended Market Index

10% Vanguard Total International Stock Index

5% Oakmark International Small Cap

30% TCW MetWest Total Return Bond

10% Fidelity Short-Term Bond FSHBX

10% Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index VTAPX

2024 Return: 6.98%

Performance Recap for Mutual Fund Saver Portfolios

Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index was the best-performing holding in any of the mutual fund portfolios this year, but it was no match for a broad US market index fund. Primecap Odyssey Growth posted decent returns in absolute terms, but they were abysmal relative to other large-cap blend funds. In a market that continued to favor big-cap tech names, the Primecap fund’s emphasis on out-of-favor growth stocks put it at a disadvantage. The fund’s weak relative result in 2024 builds upon its poor track record over the past five years, but it retains a Morningstar Medalist Rating of Gold thanks to its seasoned management team and high-conviction process.

On the international side, Oakmark International Small Cap, while a fairly small position in the portfolios, posted a loss and landed in its foreign small/mid-value Morningstar Category’s cellar for the year. As with the Primecap fund, Morningstar’s analysts retain high conviction in the fund’s management team and process and the fund maintains a Medalist Rating of Gold.

The portfolios’ core fixed-income fund, TCW MetWest Total Return Bond, is also in the midst of a streak of weak relative returns. It tends to maintain higher interest-rate sensitivity than its peers, which put it at a disadvantage in 2024. The fund has also seen the departure of several senior managers, but Morningstar analysts like its prospects under their successors. The fund earns a Silver rating. As in 2022, the Conservative portfolio’s exposure to short-term bond holdings held returns aloft on the fixed-income side.

Portfolio Changes for Mutual Fund Saver Portfolios: None. All the holdings in the mutual fund portfolios retain Morningstar Medalist Ratings at this time.

ETF Saver Portfolios

Aggressive ETF Saver Portfolio

40% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

10% Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF VBR

35% Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF VEA

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10% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO

5% iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF IUSB

2024 Return: 13.03%

Moderate ETF Saver Portfolio

40% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

8% Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF

25% Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF

7% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF

20% iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF

2024 Return: 12.47%

Conservative ETF Saver Portfolio

30% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF

12% Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF

3% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF

30% iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF

10% Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF VTIP

10% Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF BSV

2024 Return: 9.94%

Performance Recap for ETF Saver Portfolios

As in 2023, all three of the ETF Saver portfolios benefited from the stellar showing of Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF last year. As the largest holding in all the portfolios, its ample exposure to large-cap technology names gave it a boost.

On the fixed-income side, core holding iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF performed in line with other intermediate-term core-plus bond funds. But core-plus funds, which typically hold a dash of lower-quality bond exposure, outperformed core funds like total bond market index offerings in 2024. As with the Conservative mutual fund portfolio, the Conservative ETF portfolio benefited from its exposure to short-term bonds and short-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities in 2024.

Portfolio Changes for ETF Saver Portfolios: None.